Elon Musk launched the “America Party“ after Trump signed a domestic policy bill that Musk criticised for increasing the deficit. Trump dismissed the move as “ridiculous,” but experts say Musk could still damage Republicans in the 2026 midterms.
Political analyst Matt Shoemaker said, “Elon Musk’s America Party is a wild card that could upend the midterms in 2026, particularly for Republicans. With bare majorities in Congress, the Republicans should be worried.” Musk plans to target certain House and Senate seats, especially where Republicans backed Trump’s bill despite pushing fiscal restraint.
Musk hinted at the party for weeks with a social media poll in June, where 80% of 5.6 million users supported the idea. Unlike past third parties, Musk brings major funding and influence, especially among young, tech-savvy men.
Shoemaker added, “Musk’s brand appeals to disaffected independents and younger, tech-savvy voters who might otherwise break for Republicans in swing districts.” Musk, worth $405 billion, spent $277 million on Trump’s 2024 campaign but failed to win in a Wisconsin race despite spending $20 million.
His appeal doesn’t stretch to middle America. After working in the Trump administration as a budget hawk, Musk’s popularity fell. According to Nate Silver’s latest poll, Musk’s net favourability is -18.1, while Trump is at -6.6.
Flavio Hickel, a political science professor at Washington College, said, “The Republican base and MAGA movement are fairly inseparable in today’s political climate. Their support for Trump has been unwavering despite recent controversies. It’s hard to imagine any political project associated with Musk syphoning off votes from individuals who approve of Donald Trump.”
Third parties rarely win in the US. Only two minor parties have won Senate seats in the last 100 years. Legal and procedural hurdles make ballot access difficult for new parties. Political strategist Matt Klink said, “Remember in early 2024 the so-called ‘No Labels’ party that was going to chart a middle course for the 2024 elections? They fizzled out in epic fashion.”
Despite low chances of winning seats, Musk could still impact the outcome. Evan Nierman from Red Banyan said, “Elon’s party won’t win seats, but it could cost Republicans plenty. In tight districts, even a few points syphoned off from the right could flip control.”
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